Feb. 18th, 2025

If you or someone you know is a Federal civil service worker impacted by the layoffs, or if you're living in the shadow of the admin's loyalty tests and you need resources to understand what your options, rights and support look like, then Civil Service Strong has some great fact sheets, analysis, and explainers.

The betrayal of Ukraine by the Trump administration is genuinely sad news, but the aspect I find most chilling is the likelihood that Trump's fear of Putin will lead to him caving to Putin's 2021 demands that NATO be fully rolled back to its Cold War size and that Poland and the Baltics be placed back under Russian control. I think that's at the heart of the current emergency meeting in Europe, and the recent international discussion of Europe having to plan for its own defense.

All of you know that I like going to a good protest, but I'm skeptical about the effectiveness of the Buy Nothing Day protests planned for 2/28. I'm not telling you not to do it. As someone who cancelled our household's Amazon Prime account three years ago, I think we can all be doing more to support local business and spend less money on big corporations; but also as someone who has worked in e-commerce, consumer boycotts don't cause that much impact to the bottom line and are partially mitigated by political opponents ramping up their spending to show solidarity with the boycott target. A lot of day-to-day retail isn't that big of a deal; and more of the damage that a boycott does is focused around negative press and reputation around whatever actions started the boycott. If you do a mass action against all corporations then none of them actually feel any PR heat.

Most political protests are about drawing attention to an issue and shaming decisionmakers into action, and I think we'll be past that point very soon. A number of cases are starting to get to the Supreme Court and if the court rules against Trump and Trump chooses to ignore them, then the window for using protest to influence government through shame or political backlash is past. The only leverage remaining will be the ability to inflict and withstand pain.

So, yes to a protest with economic consequences, but if we want it to mean something, we have to go harder: boycott the entire holiday season. prepare for a general strike.

I don't think we're there yet, but I don't think it's a bad idea right now to do some basic strike preparation. Cut down your spending. Build up savings. Stock up on essentials.

With that, I think, domestically the next two moves are:

1. watch the Supreme Court cases and see how the administration responds to rulings and see if the Court actually does stand up for the rule of law and it's own role in checks and balances; and if the administration actually caves to these decisions.

2. see if any major fractures show up in Congress during the budget process. If the firings and tariffs cause enough backlash across enough purple and red states then there may be more opportunities to exert pressure on Republican congressfolks to tame the chaos of the administration.

Internationally, it's rather out of the hands of US citizens, but I'd be keeping my eye on Europe's response to the Russian and US neogtiations. Trump and Putin may think that this is like the 19th century where imperialists can draw lines on a map that subjugated people can't control; but I don't think the EU would stand by if that were to happen.

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