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I was reading Walden Bello's critique of globalization on the flight back to Boston, and thinking about the WTO meeting that was going on in Cancun and was supposed to end that day. Bello levels the familiar charges about how the IMF, WTO and World Bank are dealing from a stacked deck and have been instrumental in helping industrialized states pressure developing nations into unfair trade pacts, all while using the cover of "free" trade1. The cool thing about Bello, though, is that he gives you the whole historical picture, going back further and showing how the Global South (the common and catchy term for the poor countries of the world) tried to build some effective aid organizations in the 70s, but were checked and cornered by the North, who wanted to build up the IMF and World Bank as their tools for economic warfare.
The economic warfare charge is a little hard to swallow and it feels overblown, but regardless of whether you think that the IMF's economic shenanigans in the late 90's and early 21st century were nefarious schemes of Northern oppression or well-meaning, but naive attempts at development2, you can see that the results are the same. The world economy is wounded, but healing. The South feels cheated and exploited, and it's a small wonder that they haven't said "Screw you guys, I'm going home."
At least not yet. Depending on the news that you read, the disintegration of the Cancun talks was either a grand victory for the Global South ("Seattle without the tear gas" if you will) or an unwise rebellion that will be surely followed by the G8 pulling out of the WTO and cutting side deals with smaller trade groups and punish those who dared to get all uppity. Whether either view will be borne out depends on a lot of events that may or may not happen between now and the next round of trade talks in December. Will the US and EU cut side deals with individual countries and undermine the G22 coalition? Or will this motley alliance that includes China, Turkey and Brazil stand firm and clarify its position on agricultural subsidies and foreign investment? Will the populations of these nations rally around this symbol of defiance and give their leaders the courage to stay their course, or will they jump at the first favorable deal that the EU offers and encourage their leaders to sell the nation out and claim an early victory?
Who knows, but if you're an economics geek, peasant farmer reading the news, or trade activist, these are dramatic days. The poor nations of the world gathered together and stood up to the rich bullies on their block, reversing a decade of unopposed trade liberalization that's brought about more misery3 than prosperity. The church of free trade has had its 99 Theses nailed to its doorpost, but Reformation is far from a sure thing. Fair trade activists had created their own momentum in Seattle, but lost it to the tragedy of 9/11. The ultra-patriotism that followed that horror stifled most voices of dissent, regardless of whether or not that dissent had anything to do with terrorism or Islamist extremism. Now, as the hysteria has faded, it looks like the movement will regain its inertia, and it'll be interesting to see how far things can go from here.
1 as in, if you're David Rees, "Free To Bend You Over a Barrel of Pork Bellies and Assfuck You Until You Squeal Like a Pig" Trade.
2 "no, seriously, you guys, open up your trading sectors and let the Americans and Europeans buy up your local banks. It'll make your economies more vulnerable to the international market, but really it's for your own good. Trust us. Competition is awesome. Free markets are great. Communists are totally uncool. Hey, what's that leaking sound? It sounds like money fleeing your country."
3 and, you know, I could quote studies about the race to the bottom and vicious cycles of sweatshop labor, but instead, I'll just link to the brochure that a South Korean farmer distributed at Cancun shortly before he killed himself.
The economic warfare charge is a little hard to swallow and it feels overblown, but regardless of whether you think that the IMF's economic shenanigans in the late 90's and early 21st century were nefarious schemes of Northern oppression or well-meaning, but naive attempts at development2, you can see that the results are the same. The world economy is wounded, but healing. The South feels cheated and exploited, and it's a small wonder that they haven't said "Screw you guys, I'm going home."
At least not yet. Depending on the news that you read, the disintegration of the Cancun talks was either a grand victory for the Global South ("Seattle without the tear gas" if you will) or an unwise rebellion that will be surely followed by the G8 pulling out of the WTO and cutting side deals with smaller trade groups and punish those who dared to get all uppity. Whether either view will be borne out depends on a lot of events that may or may not happen between now and the next round of trade talks in December. Will the US and EU cut side deals with individual countries and undermine the G22 coalition? Or will this motley alliance that includes China, Turkey and Brazil stand firm and clarify its position on agricultural subsidies and foreign investment? Will the populations of these nations rally around this symbol of defiance and give their leaders the courage to stay their course, or will they jump at the first favorable deal that the EU offers and encourage their leaders to sell the nation out and claim an early victory?
Who knows, but if you're an economics geek, peasant farmer reading the news, or trade activist, these are dramatic days. The poor nations of the world gathered together and stood up to the rich bullies on their block, reversing a decade of unopposed trade liberalization that's brought about more misery3 than prosperity. The church of free trade has had its 99 Theses nailed to its doorpost, but Reformation is far from a sure thing. Fair trade activists had created their own momentum in Seattle, but lost it to the tragedy of 9/11. The ultra-patriotism that followed that horror stifled most voices of dissent, regardless of whether or not that dissent had anything to do with terrorism or Islamist extremism. Now, as the hysteria has faded, it looks like the movement will regain its inertia, and it'll be interesting to see how far things can go from here.
1 as in, if you're David Rees, "Free To Bend You Over a Barrel of Pork Bellies and Assfuck You Until You Squeal Like a Pig" Trade.
2 "no, seriously, you guys, open up your trading sectors and let the Americans and Europeans buy up your local banks. It'll make your economies more vulnerable to the international market, but really it's for your own good. Trust us. Competition is awesome. Free markets are great. Communists are totally uncool. Hey, what's that leaking sound? It sounds like money fleeing your country."
3 and, you know, I could quote studies about the race to the bottom and vicious cycles of sweatshop labor, but instead, I'll just link to the brochure that a South Korean farmer distributed at Cancun shortly before he killed himself.
